Are the Warriors an Illusion?

Tom Haberstroh of ESPN.com (insider only) wrote an article that caught my attention. He argues that the Warriors' 7-4 start is an illusion. Naturally, I beg to differ. 

The schedule has played a big role in the Dubs best start in years, as pointed out by Haberstroh. What he neglects to mention, though, is that the Warriors have played more road games than at home and haven't lost one that they shouldn't have, save for their first game on the road against the Pistons. They've won games without Stephen Curry and David Lee. Even the acquisition of David Lee was downplayed, as previously chronicled here on this blog.

What's the idea behind pointing out the Warriors' easy schedule? Did anyone expect them to be title contenders? If the playoffs started today the Dubs would be the 6th seed, just ahead of the Thunder and Trailblazers. No one is expecting them to beat the Lakers, Celtics and Heat.

The teams they need to stay in front of aren't powerhouses, are they? The Nuggets, Suns, Rockets and Grizzlies certainly all have flaws. Last I checked none of them have improved their defenses, and a couple of them have their best players on the trade block. It's safe to say that the Dubs can stay ahead of these teams and maybe even the Blazers due to the recent news about Brandon Roy and Greg Oden's health.

The Utah Jazz were cited as a quality victory, but the Dubs were also discredited for beating the Rockets. A team who was thought to be playoff worthy before the season started, the 5-0 home record was neglected information as well.

Finally, Monta Ellis, who an anonymous western conference GM states is "overpaid", was suggested as trade bait since this would be the perfect time to cash in on Monta's talents. If $11 Million a year is too much for the second leading score in the league and your best player, then I don't know who isn't overpaid.

So should Warriors fans take this early season start with a grain of salt and fall back to being cautiously optimistic? Personally, I felt the Warriors proved they can make the playoffs when they beat the Utah Jazz. They're playing real basketball, something that very few teams are doing. You know, rebounding, running when they can, and as mentioned, playing defense. 

They don't need to beat the Lakers on the road to prove they're a playoff team, they just need to continue beating the teams that they should and that continue to be conveniently placed in front of them. Like the Knicks on Friday. As it stands right now they're doing a pretty good job of staying ahead of the "contenders" for that 8th seed.

Warriors 7-4
Nuggets 6-5 (Will most likely trade Carmelo Anthony before February.)
Suns 6-6 (May trade Steve Nash and start rebuilding.)   
Grizzlies 4-8
Houston 3-8
Sacramento 3-7

The Appreciation Of David Lee

When David Lee was signed and traded to the Warriors last summer, the move wasn't received well by many Warrior fans. In asking my friends and casual fans about the the trade, most of them didn't even know who he was. Many Warrior fans were upset that the Dubs gave up Anthony Randolph in the trade and then gave Lee a 6-year $80 million contract. Some even compared him to Troy Murphy while his numbers (20.2 points 11.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists .545% FG's in 2010) were brushed off as being inflated due to the system he played in with the Knicks. Some even argued that the Knicks were a better rebounding team when Lee was off the floor.

Compare that to the other offseason signings of Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh and Amar'e Stoudemire. All of which were met with great fanfare and media coverage while David Lee was simply pushed to the side, just like his numbers. Why? Seriously, leave a comment if you have an idea.

Now that the season has started we can take another look at those other signings in comparison to that of Lee's. Chris Bosh comes to mind as he and Lee's numbers were quite similar in 2010. When the Warriors signed Lee I tried to explain to others that he was just as productive as Bosh, and if the Dubs were signing Bosh everyone would have been excited, but none of that got through. Now that Bosh is struggling in Miami, no one seems to remember those once proud opinions of him.

At the time of writing this Bosh was averaging 14.8 pts and 6 rebounds a night while shooting .480% from the field, with his play being considered a disappointment by most. He has been criticized for lacking mental toughness, defensive presence and rebounding. His post game or lack thereof has also come under fire because now the whole country can see that he is purely a face-up power forward. 


Lee was similarly criticized for not having any low post moves and not being a go-to scorer down on the blocks. Like Bosh he also wasn't known to be a good defender. Now that Lee is playing in the Western Conference against tougher competition, his numbers have come down in the scoring department but his rebounding is still the same (14.3 points 11.3 rebounds .464% FG's). Who knew that less than 10 games into the season David Lee would have been a better fit with Miami? That may sound crazy now, but it shouldn't have been back in July. 

Carlos Boozer-who also has similar numbers to that of Lee-has yet to play a game for the Chicago Bulls after breaking his hand in a fall at his house.

Amar'e Stoudemire and the New York Knicks just gave up a 30 point, 30 rebound performance to Kevin Love, the first of it's kind since 1982. That resulted in a loss and dropped the Knicks to 3-6 in the process. While Stoudemire has outproduced Lee so far this season, he has not proven himself to be an upgrade over Lee in the same system that the Knicks run.

The Warriors have a better record than all of these teams through the first 9 games of the season and are reaping the benefits of Lee being able to fly under the radar. Has there ever been a more underappreciated player in the the biggest city in the world than David Lee? He had proven to be mentally tough having played very well in New York for 5 straight seasons, amidst chaos, turmoil and the most unforgiving media market in the NBA. 


What about the other teams that should have gone after Lee but didn't? The Phoenix Suns are still trotting out Hedo Turkoglu at power forward where he continues to struggle for his new team as well. Grant Hill is their leading rebounder at 6.5 per game.

The Milwaukee Bucks were very concerned with Andrew Bogut's health heading into this season so they decided to spend their money on Drew Gooden, John Salmons and trade for Corey Maggette. Any thoughts on how a Lee, Bogut and Brandon Jennings trio would look now?

Even the Oklahoma City Thunder and Utah Jazz should have gotten into the mix. Both had gaping holes at power forward and while the Jazz have been successful with Big Al, it is safe to say that Lee's passing and ability to play the pick-and-roll with Deron Williams could have improved the Jazz a bit more.

For the Thunder, imagine a starting lineup that featured David Lee at the four and Serge Ibaka at the five with Jeff Green sliding over to the small forward spot. With such great length at every position, the Thunder would have greatly increased their chances at contending with the Lakers this year.

David Lee is only averaging 14.3 points and 11.3 rebounds per game this year, but he clearly has had the biggest impact on his team when compared with the other power forward signings thus far. The Warriors are off to their best start in years and the best part about it is that Lee hasn't even started to show his scoring prowess yet. Sure he's not the most glamorous name and you might think he's a bit overpaid, but, why? I have no idea and no one else has been able to give me a good reason. I'm just glad everyone besides Larry Riley and the Warriors felt the same way.

Warriors Improve to 5-2, Monta Ellis Injury Not Serious

According to CBSSports.com, Monta Ellis' back injury is "not serious" and is being classified as a back strain. 


The Warriors lost Ellis to a hard fall in last night's win over the Toronto Raptors, after he had scored 28 points in helping lead the Warriors to their first road win of the season. Stephen Curry finished with 34 points and plenty of big shots in the 4th quarter to finish out the victory.


The Warriors don't play again until Wednesday when they will face the New York Knicks.


Game Time: 4:30p.m. Pacific Time.


TV: CSNBayArea

Warriors Stall In Detroit, Lose to Pistons

Stephen Curry had an opportunity to send the game to overtime but missed his 3rd attempt from the three point stripe which led to the Dubs second loss of the season, 102-97 to the Detroit Pistons. 


The Dubs looked a little flat in this game but still had plenty of opportunities to win it. Their defensive rotations were not as crisp as they have been at home. They surrendered plenty of open jumpers and the Pistons made them pay. A few careless mistakes late in the third quarter and an inability to put together a string of baskets in the fourth is what ultimately did them in.


The Warriors continued to struggle from the perimeter in this game and their rebounding didn't save them like it has early on this season. They finished tied with Detroit at 46 rebounds apiece and the Pistons also shot better at 45.1% to the Warriors' 42.9.


Curry is visibly laboring, showing limited quickness and mobility while still trying to play with his sprained ankle. A healthy Curry probably would have been the difference in this game as he finished with only 10 points on 3 for 12 shooting.


David Lee also continues to struggle in finding his rhythm within the Warrior offense, scoring only 11 points and still not having much of anything drawn up for him. As one of the best finishers off of the pick and roll, we still have yet to see the Dubs truly run it with him on a consistent basis. In a game where the Warriors were struggling to put up points, this would have been the perfect opportunity to do so.


Nonetheless the Warriors are still 4-2 and will play in Toronto against the Raptors tonight at 4:00p.m. pacific time. A very winnable game.  

Warriors-Pistons Preview Featuring Piston Powered

I don't know too much about the Pistons aside from the fact that they took Greg Monroe in this year's draft and they have had problems with their coach. So I enlisted the help of the hardworking folks over at www.pistonpowered.com specifically, Patrick Hayes. Here's his take on the Pistons and how they might fair against the Dubs. 

What is wrong with the Pistons?

Lots and lots of things. But rather than bore you with all of the dirty details, I'll give a top three.

- Rebounding: The Pistons have only two guys on the roster (Ben Wallace and Greg Monroe) who average more than seven rebounds per-36. They are starting a small forward (Austin Daye) at power forward because the frontcourt is so thin and their backup PF, Charlie Villanueva, is allergic to rebounds.

- Chemistry issues: The brunt of the coverage of this had to do with Rodney Stuckey getting benched for ignoring John Kuester on the court, but stories of coach-player clashes have trickled out the last two seasons under Kuester. Tayshaun Prince and Kuester had a yelling match last season, and Prince had some comments earlier this season suggesting all was not perfect in their relationship. Ben Wallace bristled when he was asked about Kuester's comments about the team needing more leadership. Villanueva and Kuester had a rocky relationship at times last year. And making things worse, the Pistons have most of their high priced and/or big name players spread at two positions. So virtually every game, someone from the Rip Hamilton/Ben Gordon/Prince/Tracy McGrady group gets squeezed out of minutes.

- Injuries: Jonas Jerebko was the Pistons second best player last season, and without his offensive rebounding and hustle in particular, the team has had a hard time finding a similarly energetic replacement. Jerebko was also improving -- he put up monster numbers for the Swedish national team over the summer. Not great competition, I grant you, but he became a more confident offensive player and he's a big part of the team's future. Less notable, Chris Wilcox has yet to play. Wilcox is not very good, but he is 6-10 and strong and could help against some of the bigger front lines that have pushed the Pistons around.

The Warriors will lose if. . . ?

They turn the ball over. The Pistons have had late leads in five of their six games. They didn't play great in all of those games, but at times, they have been a pesky and opportunistic group than can create occasional matchup issues and take advantage of mistakes. Opponents are shooting 48 percent against the Pistons. In the Pistons lone win of the season, Charlotte shot 55 percent against them. Expect the Warriors to shoot well, but if there are turnovers or defensive lapses, the Pistons can steal a game even if they get out-played.

I saw your post about T-Mac continuing to play the point, is that likely vs. the Dubs?

It depends on how fully out of the doghouse Stuckey is and how healthy Will Bynum is. McGrady originally got minutes at the point backing up Stuckey because Bynum missed a few games. Stuckey sat out Friday's game as punishment for his hearing problem, but Bynum returned to the lineup. If Stuckey just moves right back into the starting lineup and Bynum doesn't have a setback, McGrady probably won't see much time at PG. If they want to make Stuckey sweat a little and earn his job back, maybe McGrady will still get a few minutes there.

Thanks again to Patrick for the info (far more than I had bargained for).

Warriors Beat Jazz, Because They're Good

Bad headline? Maybe, but it describes what the Warriors are now. A good team. In a game where they shot 37.6% as a team, made only 2 three pointers, and shot under 60% from the line, they still improved to 4-1 while beating a team that hadn't played the night before.


Stephen Curry returned from his ankle injury but was still only 80-85% in my estimation. He  played great in the 4th quarter though, scoring 11 of his 20 points and making free throws down the stretch to put the game away. Monta Ellis, well, he's a star now. Stars switch over to the other team's best player and hold them to just 6 assists and force them into 8 turnovers. Deron Williams still scored 23 points, but Monta matched that output and Deron didn't have the kind of impact he normally does, which of course affected his teammates. All of this allowed Stephen Curry to guard Raja Bell, give Keith Smart credit for this defensive game plan.


Monta also had a big hand in putting the game away on the offensive end, hitting a big jumper with under a minute to go and tying a career-high in steals with 7. While we're here, this is where the Warriors showed continued growth and development as a team. On the possession where Monta hit that jumper to put them up by 5 with 54 seconds to go, it was the typical stand at the top of the circle-make something happen play-that you see from every team in the league that thinks one guy can win it. It worked on this occasion which was great, but on the next possession we saw something different.


Monta stood in the same place but then dished it off to Curry, who drove left and gave it to Dorell Wright in the corner who (didn't shoot well tonight but did things like this) drove baseline and found Andris Biedrins for a contested layup. The layup attempt failed but David Lee was there to tip it in because Utah had to react to all five of the Warriors moving on the court. It wasn't drawn up to work this way but that was the personification of what we have seen from this team during this 4-1 start. Teamwork, ball movement and rebounding.


Speaking of Lee and Biedrins, they combined for 35 rebounds with 14 of them being offensive. One of the many reasons the Warriors were able to grind out a win against a team that has dominated them for the better parts of this decade and the last. 


Now the Warriors will go on the road for the first time this year with reason to believe that they can and will beat most of the teams on their schedule. 


I'm shocked at what I have seen from the Warriors thus far, but at the same time we shouldn't be. This is the kind of basketball they have always been capable of playing and now finally are. Because they're good.  

Warriors-Jazz Quick Preview

Stephen Curry will be a game time decision tonight as the Warriors will host the Utah Jazz at home. This is not a game the Warriors are supposed to win with or without Curry, but at 3-1 there's reason for optimism. Monta Ellis is playing great and continues to lead the Warriors to victories with his scoring and excellent perimeter defense. Those factors give the Dubs a fighting chance even if Curry can't go tonight. 

Deron Williams will have to work to stay in front of Ellis which might help limit Williams' production on the offensive end. Utah's will allow team's to score on them which the Warriors have been doing quite well this season. The battles on the front lines between David Lee, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson and Andris Biedrins will be key to whichever team wins tonight as neither has offered much deterence in the paint this season. Hopefully Brandan Wright will be healthy enough to play after missing Wednesday's game with a stomach virus. If so the Warrriors will have the edge against Utah's bench. 

Tonight looks to be a good  matchup at the guard positions no matter who suits up for the Warriors at point. If it's Monta we know what we'll get, if it's Curry hopefully he's freshe enough to make Deron work.

Game Time: 7:30p.m.
TV: CSNBayArea
Radio: KNBR 680

A New Starting Five For These Struggling Teams

Evan Turner-Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers are 1-4 and have started Jason Kapono and Andres Nocioni over the number two pick in the 2010 NBA Draft. I always question the logic of teams who are in the lottery and then don't start who they draft. If the player isn't good enough to start right away, why did you draft him? Either way, this case doesn't need to be made based on his draft position, his production alone is deserving of the starting slot at the one, two or three positions. Turner is averaging 9.2 points on .488% FG's and 5.6 rebounds a game in only 26 minutes a night. Everyone knows that Turner will need the ball in his hands to be successful in this league so why not just give it to him now when you're 1-4? Nothing against Jrue Holiday but I still don't get why there is so much hype about his game. He plays good defense and looked like he had improved his shot in Summer League, but thus far his .396% shooting and 5.4 assists per game aren't doing Philly any favors.

Lou Williams-Philadelphia 76ers

I think we're starting to figure out why Philly is 1-4. Williams leads the team in scoring with18 a night and is still dishing out 4 assists per game in only 26 minutes. At the very least, starting Lou at shooting guard with Evan at the point and Iguodala at the three would make them one of the best perimeter trios in the league in terms of production. Now that Elton Brand has got his groove back the perimeter play needs to compliment his 18 points per game and wildly impressive shooting (.561%).  Louis launching from deep would do that. Jrue Holiday would be a nice compliment to Thaddeus Young off the bench and just imagine if they played Mareese Speights as well.

Hakim Warrick-Phoenix Suns

This one is easy. Amar'e Stoudemire is gone and so are his best qualities, namely, athleticism and his play on the pick and roll. So why has Hedo Turkoglu been the man to replace him? His best qualities are passing and shooting. He's not passing, (1.5 assists per) scoring, (8.5 points) rebounding, (3 a night) shooting, (.379% from the field but .400% from three to his credit) or fitting in (24 minutes per, Suns 1-3). Hakim Warrick on the other hand is athletic, can play the pick and roll and has produced with 12.3 points, 5.5 rebounds on .571% from the field in his Yao Ming like, 23 minutes per game. With career averages of 17 and 7 per 36 minutes, who knew? The Suns did at some point, that's why they signed him to replace Stoudemire but apparently, things change.

Greg Monroe-Detroit Pistons

As the number seven pick in the draft, we can apply the Evan Turner logic here as well. Although the production is lacking in comparison. Jonas Jerebko who was going to start at power forward is out for the year so. . . Greg Monroe is still not starting for an 0-5 Pistons team that is beginning to tune out it's coach. Lest we forget that Monroe fell to the Pistons because my Warriors didn't draft him, offering a glimmer of hope for the franchise. Sitting at 0-5 it is safe to say that glimmer is not coming from within the current rotation. It could come from Monroe and his 14.5 rebounds per 36 minute average, and perhaps with more time on the floor his passing would benefit the shooting touches of Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon. Perhaps a breath of fresh air in the form of Greg Monroe will excite everyone on the team! This is not a likely scenario, but it would be better than what we have seen so far.

Eric Bledsoe-Los Angeles Clippers

This one is easier said than done. Baron Davis, who has admitted to not being in shape and has a contract that cannot be easily traded, despite his sunny disposition, puts Vinny Del Negro in a tough spot. If the Clips bench B-Diddy it probably wouldn't go over to well, further complicating a delicate team chemistry. The Clips might even have to Jamaal Tinsley him. After one game, many people are jumping on the Bledsoe band wagon, but really it's about the wheels falling off of Baron's. Since he has been in L.A. he hasn't produced as expected and this year it's even worse (10.3 points, 5.7 ast, .324%FG's). What team wouldn't be confident that their point guard could produce better numbers than that? After one game, Bledsoe has proven he can, against Russell Westbrook no less.

Monta Ellis & Good Basketball Lead the Way In Win Over Grizzlies

So much for Jeremy Lin playing more minutes but either way the Dubs pulled out another victory over Rudy Gay and the Memphis Grizzlies to improve to 3-1 on the season. Monta Ellis continues to impress, scoring 17 of his 39 points in the 4th quarter when the Warriors needed it most. He also finished with 8 assists, 9 rebounds and played all but 5 minutes of the entire game.

David Lee bounced back with a huge performance on the boards as he and Andris Biedrins continue to outrebound and outwork their opponents, a big reason as to why the Warriors have gotten off to their great start.

While the defensive improvement hasn't been as pronounced as Keith Smart said it would be, he is making a case for himself as Coach of the Year. The Warriors are making plays when they need to and are finding ways to win games, characteristics of a good team. The Grizzlies shot 51.3% from the field as a team while the Dubs struggled at 41.2%. Yet they got to the line nine more times then the Grizz and outrebounded them 48 to 39 with 19 offensive rebounds.

Late in the game Keith Smart designed an inbounds play to get Monta Ellis the ball, the formation completely fooled the Memphis Grizzlies and Ellis was wide open for the simple pass. This is the kind of execution the Warriors were missing last year, actually the past few years. These are the subtle diffferences that are leading the Warriors to victory. They won the 4th quarter, hit free throws down the stretch, withstood a big performance from Rudy Gay and so on and so on.

Sure the defense could be better and will need to be, but for now their fundamentals are carrying them through and that is good enough to beat the team's they're supposed to. Ball movement, rebounding, and hitting open shots. Dorell Wright and his 25 points fit in perfectly with tonight's game and everygame thus far. Reggie Williams had a career high 8 assists off the bench and others contributed as well. The Warriors went 8 deep tonight and even though Dan Gadzuric only played 6 minutes, his presence was felt. The Warriors are a real team again. They aren't just trying to sell tickets or win with gimmicks right now, they're playing real basketball and winning. Keith Smart is the reason for that and he ought to be commended over and over again.

Now a look at the Warriors "Division Standings".

Warriors 3-1

Kings 3-2
Nuggets 2-2
Grizzlies 2-3
Suns 1-3
Clippers 1-4
Timberwolves 1-4
Rockets 0-4

Stephen Curry Out against Memphis, More Minutes for Jeremy Lin

Jeremy Lin should play early and often tonight as the backup to Monta Ellis while Stephen Curry rests his sprained ankle for the second straight game. This move comes on the heels of Lin's energetic performance in the Warriors loss to the Lakers on Sunday.

The Warriors will be taking on the Memphis Grizzlies at home tonight 7:30 p.m. on CSNBayarea. The Grizz are coming off of their own blowout loss to the Lakers last night so the Dubs should have the edge from an energy standpoint at the very least. Mike Conley has been surprising some with his play this year so Monta will have his hands full tracking his presence on the court. This will be a great opportunity for Lin to prove his worth on the defensive end as he has been known to pressure the ball a bit more than most on the team.

The Warriors should not lose this game even without Curry as the Grizz will be without Zach Randolph. This game will have a direct bearing on the playoff aspirations of both teams so this is a must win for the Dubs. At home, rested, with time to prepare for the opponent this should be a good game.

Warriors Lose to the Defending Champion Lakers

Even with Stephen Curry the Warriors were going to have their work cut out for them against the Los Angeles Lakers. Since he didn't play because of his sprained ankle, they were just cut out. The Lakers were too tall on the glass and the Warriors jump shots were left behind in Oakland as the Lakers won big, 107 to 83.


David Lee was scoreless in 19 minutes of play while Pau Gasol had another Pau Gasol type game; 26 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 blocks. Kobe Bryant chipped in with 20 points and Lamar Odom finished with16 points to go with his 14 rebounds. The Lakers won the rebounding battle 55 to 42 in case you were wondering.

Monta Ellis scored 20 points and Andris Biedrins played well early on but outside of those two the going was pretty tough. In the third quarter Jeremy Lin finally got some extended minutes and he did not disappoint. Even the Laker fans were impressed with his hustle plays that didn't all show up in the box score next to his 4 steals, but hopefully they will in Keith Smart's memory going forward.

Too many things didn't go right for the Dubs tonight but to their credit, they weren't supposed to win this game anyway. The Lakers are the defending champs and the Dubs are just trying to climb out of the lottery this year. We can now lump them in with Dwyane Wade's Miami Heat, who also weren't going 82-0.

Up next for the Dubs will be the Memphis Grizzlies, an important game as they will be competing with them for the 8th seed the rest of the year. I'm going to go out on a limb here and call it a game the Warriors should win if they plan to make the playoffs. In fact, here's a "division" for all of those teams.

Warriors 2-1
Nuggets 2-1
Grizzlies 2-1
Kings 2-1
Timberwolves 1-2
Suns 1-2
Clippers 0-3
Rockets 0-3

This is the division the Warriors should be concerned about and thus far they're undefeated against the teams within. Check back Wednesday to see what happens against their rival Grizzlies! (Trying to build drama).

Warriors Defeat Clippers but Lose Stephen Curry

The Warriors continued improvement was on full display Friday night in a 109-91 domination of the Clippers. Stephen Curry reinjured his right ankle but still managed to produce 16 points and 6 assists on 7 of 9 shooting from the field before he left the game.

Monta Ellis took over the point guard duties the rest of the way and the offense didn't miss a beat with his 11 assists and 6 of 12 shooting from the floor. In fact, the Warriors finished the game with 32 assists on 43 field goals while shooting 53.1% from the field as a team. Dorell Wright continues to be phenomenal on the wing, hitting 6 of 8 from behind the arc and grabbing 8 rebounds. Through two games, he leads the Warriors in three pointers made and percentage.



David Lee played another solid game on the boards (12 rebounds) helping the Warriors win that battle as a team, 46 to the Clippers 40. Blake Griffin finished with 10 rebounds and 14 points, but the team defense kept he and the Clippers under control, holding them to just 38.6% shooting.

After leading by just 4 points at halftime the Warriors came out in the 3rd quarter with more energy than the Clips and a sense of urgency that blew the game wide open. This is where the team has improved the most since last year. They are now executing their game plan for the entire game. They held the Clippers to just 13 points in the 3rd quarter while maintaining their own ability to score. There's no surprise in the Warriors starting the game well but this year they're finishing games and making adjustments as they go on. Keith Smart is truly making a case for himself to get an extension and he needs to be commended.

Not only is he playing his bench, he's putting trust in them and they are responding. I thought they would be a major weakness this season but thus far they have held there own and look to be a reliable unit going forward. The Warriors are off to their best start in over 15 years and things are looking good. The Lakers are up next but it looks like they will be in for a battle on Sunday. Now that the Warriors have proven they can control the boards against one quality team (Rockets) and another that featured a great rebounder in Griffin, the Lakers front line does not seem to be so intimidating. It will be a fun game to watch as the Warriors hit the road for the first time this season and get to see how they compare to the NBA's elite.

Same Old Monta Ellis, Advanced Stats Beware

Monta Ellis looked like a different player to most observers last night, but not to those of us who were watching him last year. He wasn’t playing in the shadow of Stephen Curry on opening night, and he wasn’t pitted against him by the fans and media, at least not yet anyway. Last year it was "Curry's team" as soon as the Warriors could print it and Monta was just taking up space. Monta was labeled a ball hog, gunner, volume shooter and whatever other selfish label you can think of. You can read one of those articles here. He was inefficient, a bad teammate and in the middle of trade rumors for the entire season. That last part might still be true, but if you were watching on Wednesday night you saw the same player that Monta was last year. This time, there was just a different script, but he was still the same performer on the court.



Monta Ellis posted a player efficiency rating (PER) of 45.2 in game one while scoring 46 on 18-24 shooting. The most points on opening night since Michael Jordan’s 54 points on November 3rd, 1989. He was a +9 while on the floor and gave the Houston Rocket defense fits in trying to guard him with their best defender, Shane Battier. This game was a coming out party for Monta and his new teammates. Ball movement and player movement were the hallmarks of the Warrior offense. There was no standing around for extended periods of time watching Monta Ellis try to create plays. Stephen Curry's 25 points and 11 assists fit perfectly with Monta's scoring, whereas last year his great performances just occurred next to Monta's as opposed to melding with his. New acquisition David Lee contributed 6 assists and 15 rebounds, numbers that were also missing from last year's movie that featured Monta running without purpose in the half court sets and tiring from playing too many minutes without breaks.


I bring this all up because not too long ago Kevin Durant was considered to be a bad "advanced stats" guy. Then, almost miraculously, he became great over night! Something must have changed within him, right? Durant has certainly grown as player, but hasn't his team as well? Now articles like this and this are written about him. He averages 30 points a game and that's it. Nowhere near his name will you see or hear the words ball hog or volume shooter. The fact of the matter is that both Durant and Monta had similar situations.


Kevin Durant played in a system that didn’t utilize his strengths his first year in the league. Then after a full training camp with new coach Scott Brooks, and a marked improvement from second year point guard Russell Westbrook, things started to click. Coincidentally, the same circumstances are starting to fall into place for the Warriors. Keith Smart is the new coach and has installed a true NBA offense, meanwhile Curry looks much improved in terms of controlling the tempo and game management. David Lee is the best power forward the Warriors have had since Chris Webber and thus, a far more seasoned version of the versatile Jeff Green. With two willing and great passers around him, how long will it be before Monta Ellis starts eating plus/minus for breakfast? Or, how long before others get their seats and realize, they were just late to the theater and the screen was blurry last season.

Monta Ellis Lights Up the Rockets In Warriors Win

How refreshing it was to see Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry and David Lee all play well on opening night and more importantly, play together. Monta Ellis tied his career-high of 46 points while missing just six shots the entire game in a well played and well executed game by Keith Smart's new look Warriors.

Stephen Curry added 25 points to go with his 11 assists and David Lee was the all everything Power Forward the Warriors wanted him to be with 17 points, 15 rebounds and 6 assists. The biggest difference in this team as opposed to last year's was the rebounding and execution. The Warriors outrebounded the Rockets 45 to 39 and though Yao Ming wasn't there they are still to be commended. The Dubs also showcased a marked improvement in their offensive sets with great ball movement, flow, and most importantly, no scoring droughts. Keith Smart managed the game perfectly with excellent substitution patterns while calling timeouts whenever the Rockets started to make a push, as opposed to after they were already into one. He even held Monta Ellis to 40 minutes which is like 34 for most players. 

The Warriors gave up a lot of points but not in the way that you might think. The Rockets were sent to the free throw line 52 times and made good on 42 of those trips. Kevin Martin finished with 28 points but Monta Ellis played excellent defense on him as 17 of those points came from the line. Stephen Curry did a great job on Aaron Brooks as well, whom the Warriors kept out of the paint and limited to just 2 of 8 from downtown. The Rockets scored 128 points but the Warrior defense tightened up in the key moments of the game and didn't give up much as the Rockets made only 4 of 16 from behind the arc.

Andris Biedrins was back in a big way with excellent movement on defense and cleaning up whatever rebounds David Lee couldn't get to. A great way to start the season for the Warriors and they should be proud of themselves because they executed beautifully against a team who is considered to be better than them, with or without Yao Ming. The Warriors will be battling it out with the Rockets this year for the 8th and final playoff spot, so this was an important win that also gets them off to a good start. They don't have to take away a moral victory, they can enjoy this one and get ready for the Clippers on Friday knowing that their defensive principles can only improve and that their offensive ones already work.

Warriors Finish Preseason Schedule with Loss to Lakers but Show Improvement

Monta Ellis finished with 41 points and the rest of his Warrior teammates played very well against the defending champion Lakers who were playing at about half speed whereas the Dubs were going full throttle.

If you hadn't been watching the Warriors this preseason, this game showed a lot of promise in terms of style, effort, defensive improvements and ball movement. This review will be more about team analysis as opposed to the game because this was my first time seeing the Dubs with my own eyes.

The Warriors are finally playing NBA basketball again which is very encouraging. Their defensive principles have improved mightily in terms of spacing, help and rebounding. Again, the Lakers did seem to be moving a step slower but the Warriors weren't chasing the ball around in the half court set when the Lakers were on offense. When someone drove to the hoop, Andris Biedrins and or David Lee was there to meet them. After which they would grab the miss and fire a decent outlet pass to one of the guards. That's all you can ask for from those two and Keith Smart needs to be commended for the tactical improvement. 

David Lee's passing is amazing. This has got to be the most underrated aspect of his game. The new sets in the half court look far better than last year's as they are filled with back door cuts and off ball screens. Lee surveying from the post or the elbow will result in plenty of assists for him and easy baskets for others. In the 4th quarter, though, they reverted back to watching Monta Ellis or Reggie Williams go 1 on 5 even when Monta was visibly tired. Perhaps Coach Smart didn't want to utilize David Lee in the pick and roll too much because it will be a big part of their attack this season. Stephen Curry didn't play in this game so I can only imagine how good the team will look operating with a true point guard. Again, it was preseason but the improvements are there and with this brand of basketball the Warriors should finish with far more than 26 wins this year.

Why did Monta Ellis play every minute? That doesn't bode well for his health throughout the season. It would have been nice to see him finish with somewhere around 33 minutes but apparently old habits die hard. Since it was preseason, a few changes for the team need to be made but hopefully they already will be.

1. David Lee needs to get the ball earlier and more often during the games. They weren't even going to him and he still ended up with 16 points. When they do get it to him he needs to be lower on the block because to often he caught it at the free throw line with not much to do when he wasn't looking to pass.

2. Andris looked great but I don't now how good of an idea it is to pound the ball into him so often. Kudos to Smart though for keeping Andris involved in the offense and making the opponents pay attention to him. I just don't know why I felt like Biens received more touches on the block than Lee did. 

For a record of 3-5, the Warriors can still be encouraged because they played well, played together and showed that their new strategies and systems will translate to winning basketball if they stick with it. Can't wait for Wednesday against the Rockets to see how they do when it counts.  

A Preview of the Warriors Schedule Part II

At the Detroit Pistons



The Warriors have better guards, forwards, and chemistry. They should win this one comfortably even though the Pistons can cause some problems in terms of height and length. Either way Curry should have a big bounce back game and Monta should have no trouble getting around Richard Hamilton and posting up Ben Gordon when he's on the floor. The Warriors defense should also have one of their best showings of the season against this team since they are lacking a true point guard and post presence. Warriors win.


At the Toronto Raptors


This game will provide another opportunity for the Dubs to build some confidence on the road. The Raptors like to run but they just can't match up with the Warriors at any position. Unless Andrea Bargnani has a huge game (think 30 plus points) then the W's should win this one easily and again this is an important game for them because they need to win these kinds of games on the road. They are the better team, period. The Dubs need to be past the point where they play teams like the Lakers and Celtics tough at home but then lose to the Raptors and Pistons on the road. These are the games that Keith Smart should be concerned about. Warriors win.


At the New York Knicks


The Dubs seem to always play well at Madison Square Garden and this night should be no exception. David Lee should have a big game for obvious motivational reasons and just like the teams they will have already met on this road trip, they're just plain better. It would be nice to see the W's come into New York with some confidence and urgency as opposed to being relaxed from their previous victories. The way the team performs in this one will be a good barometer of Keith Smart's coaching performance thus far. Typically, the Dubs play vey well against Mike D'Antoni led teams and that should not change here. Warriors win.


At the Chicago Bulls


At 5-3 the Dubs should be feeling pretty good about themselves heading into Chicago and they should look to sneak out with a win. Carlos Boozer will not be there so once again David Lee should continue to produce. The Bulls will play defense and that might get them over the hump. Coupled with the fact that the Dubs will still be the road team and having played the night before, it would be okay if the Dubs dropped this one. Bulls win.

At the Milwaukee Bucks


I like Milwaukee this year and they will be a force. They're better coached and have far better depth but the Warriors should still be able to steal this one. Stephen Curry didn't start the game last year when Brandon Jennings torched the Warriors for 55 points. Not to say that Curry will be the defensive savior, but I bring it up because more than likely he will take a little pride in the individual battle and come out the victor. Also, lost in the hoopla of Brandon's performance was the fact that the Bucks still only won by four points even though Andrew Bogut had a great game as well. Monta Ellis wasn't too shabby though and the Warriors were without Andris Biedrins. The benches will be the difference makers in this game and I don't see Keith Smart outcoaching Scott Skiles in this one. A tough loss but a close one, Bucks win.

So a 5-5 start should be a reasonable goal for this team and 6-4 is a more than realistic option as well. Since the Warriors start with a long and early road trip it will be interesting to see how they respond to Keith Smart when they face the normal ups and downs of an eastern conference schedule. When they're tired or down by 10, the bench isn't producing, they get a lead early and lose the lead late, someone gets hurt, etc. These are the differences to look for if they plan to be a playoff team. Also, winning the games they should and playing as hard against the elite teams as the mediocre ones. These first 10 games will set the tone for their season on the road.

A Preview of the Warriors Schedule

The Warriors have a tough schedule at the beginning of the season but it is still manageable. Even the games they might be expected to lose are winnable. The Warriors will have a great opportunity to build some confidence on the road early on which will be a strong indicator as to whether or not they will be a playoff team. Here is a brief preview and analysis for the first 10 games of the schedule.



At home against Houston, Opening Night.


The Warriors should have tons of energy for this game playing for a new coach in a new system and having defined roles for everyone for the first time in years. The Rockets will be welcoming the return of Yao Ming, but only for 24 minutes of the game. The Rockets look to be a better team on paper based upon their depth and coaching experience so I will concede defeat to this team, but again the energy factor just might be the difference in an upset. Rockets win.


Los Angeles Clippers at home


This is a must win game for the Warriors because we will have to win these 50/50 games if we plan on making the playoffs this year. Blake Griffin has looked ridiculous in the preseason and Baron Davis will probably play well in this game since he's a former Warrior. Nonetheless, Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis and David Lee should win every matchup from a positional standpoint and Keith Smart should be able to outcoach the less than genius Vinny Del Negro in their first meeting. Depending on who you're a fan of you could make the case for either team to win, so of course I will choose the Warriors. Warriors win.


At the Los Angeles Lakers


If Kobe Bryant is not completely healthy . . . this team should still beat us. But with Pau Gasol having to contend with David Lee and Andris Biedrins, there's reason to be a bit more confident than usual for this matchup. Kobe will have to chase Monta Ellis around the floor and Derek Fisher will have to chase Stephen Curry. Watch out for those two battles. The Lakers still play far better defense and have figured out that they need to win these games early in the season so that they can rest for the playoffs. Not to mention that they will have a big advantage in the coaching and matchup departments. Lakers win.


Memphis Grizzlies at Home


The Grizzlies also fall into the "must win" category much like the Clippers and Rockets. It can't be emphasized enough that the Dubs have to win these games in order to make the playoffs. In banking on the idea that this team is now mature enough to realize that then I will have to pick the W's as a winner in this one. David Lee's presence cannot be underestimated as he will now cancel out what most power forwards in the league can or will do to us. That would include Zach Randolph. The Grizzlies do have more depth but the Warriors will have the home crowd behind them to help out in the energy department. Warriors win.

Utah Jazz at Home


So here we are at 2-2 facing a crossroads. If the Dubs win this one they will truly be making a statement. Stephen Curry will be the key to this game because he looked like Deron Williams' little brother every time they played last year. If he can hold his own than the Dubs might pull this one out. Since Deron knows he will have to play like an MVP every game this year I suspect that he will take full advantage of exploiting Curry's defensive weaknesses as well as the team's. Here's to Keith Smart switching Ellis on to Williams and hopefully slowing him down. Otherwise it will be a Jazz victory.

Check back for part II and the next five games tomorrow.

A Blogger's Life

This blog is about basketball. I haven't been writing for very long but this blog is hard to maintain while working a full time job and being married. Of course my wife wants to do things on the weekends and they do not include watching me write blog posts. Like you the reader or fellow blogger, I have other interests as well. Probably three times a week I read articles by bloggers who don't write anything about basketball just so that I can find out different ways to increase my blog traffic. Most of them are good reads and are very helpful. If you're a blogger who came across this post, please leave a comment. Usually I find time to post in the mornings before I go to work or on my lunch breaks at work. I find it very difficult to consistently post on my blog, you know 5 days a week at least, so this article and question is to you the reader and or blogger, how do you do it?


A few writers that I read regularly seem to be able to juggle both pretty well. Recently I read an excellent post by Matthew Bunch of http://www.hothothoops.com/ where he was discussing the fact that he and his website will no longer be apart of the ESPN TrueHoop Network. It's a sad story and I feel for Matthew and the rest of his writers over there. But what stuck out to me most was this quote in his article: "However, for two guys getting paid $0 for their work and working at least one full-time job (I can’t speak for Surya, I work 60 hours a week),"

60 hours a week! Now I figure that most bloggers have day jobs unless they are in the extremely coveted position of being able to get paid for one of their hobbies. So again, how do you do it and just out of curiosity, what are some of your day jobs? For example, I have a lot of respect for Joshua Russell over at http://www.warriorscourt.com/. He appears to be a one man operation but he also manages the http://www.moneyballblog.com/ and http://www.ninersnuggets.com/. All three are updated frequently with brief yet informative articles, very impressive.

Then there's Adam Lauridsen of warriors fast break. Apparently he's a lawyer but also a very good sports writer. His objective, optimistic yet still realistic points of view are a must read for Warriors fans everywhere. I'm sure his Harvard education helps with his writing, but being a lawyer and consistent blogger?

Ethan Sherwood Strauss of http://www.warriorsworld.net/ seems to be a pretty busy writer as well, penning articles for slate that have nothing to do with basketball.

These were just a few examples that I have sighted so feel free to offer your insights on the challenges of blogging, and juggling life. Or if you are one of these guys whom I just mentioned, thanks for reading and again leave a comment. Or if you just like to read blogs in general, please leave your comments as well. After all that's what I was and still am. Thanks for your time, because obviously it isn't easy to manage.

What can we take from the NBA Preseason Schedule?

I was tempted to write an extended piece on the Miami Heat's first game of the preseason and another on their game last night with the Oklahoma City Thunder. In the preseason everyone says that we shouldn't take away too much from what we see or put too much stock into what the results are. But since the Warriors beat the Clippers by 40 on Friday night I think there are a few things we can be happy about, not without a brief disclaimer though first.



In the NFL, the San Francisco 49ers were not very effective in moving the ball in their preseason slate this year. Now that the regular season has started they still are not very effective in that area and happen to be 0-4 because of it. The 49ers did go undefeated in the preseason but as you know, NFL starters don't play entire halves so typically its backups vs. backups. In the NBA teams typically play their starters between 25-30 minutes a night. In the NFL the plays are very simple and you don't see a lot in terms of adjustments or formations. The same can be said for the NBA but since basketball is more of a free flowing sport with far less structure, I tend to argue that we can and should take some things away from the preseason. And as the 49ers offense has proven, certain things in the preseason carry over into the regular season.

This is a localized study obviously intended specifically for the Warriors. I didn't need to wait to see the Heat in the preseason before I declared them eventual champions as soon as I saw "The Decision". For the W's though, I almost spent the $30 it would have taken to watch them play Blake Griffin and the Clippers on Friday night since the game wasn’t televised. I will be watching them play DeMarcus Cousins and the Kings on Sunday though so check back for some analysis. At any rate, the Warriors have been a bit of a mixed bag over the last few preseason schedules, their records were as follows:

4-4 in 09’-10’
4-2 in 08'-09'
7-2 in 07'-08'
5-1 in 06'-07'
3-5 in 05'-06'


Last year of course we were not healthy, traded our second best player in November and the team was filled with turmoil throughout the season. In 08'-09' we didn't have Monta for the regular season or preseason but we were still successful for those first six practice games in October. I guess you can attribute that success to it being "The preseason!" In 07'-08' we finished the year with 48 wins so the preseason record had some validity to it I guess you could say.


So what can we decipher from the W's successes and failures in their performances that don’t actually count? Since this is a positive blog we will choose from their last successful regular season for a comparison. They put up 111.3 points a game in the 2008 preseason and finished the year scoring at an even 111 per night once the real games started. They ended up giving away 2.1 points per game more than they did on their preseason schedule but their preseason offense was an accurate indication of what came to be.


Now the 06’-07’ season was quite similar to this one in terms of optimism. Hiring new coach Don Nelson then and Keith Smart now are making fans reminiscent of the positive changes that came when Nelson arrived. That team was expected to be decent with an outside chance of making the playoffs, which they did. The same thoughts apply to this year’s team. So since we will now be breaking down the preseason games, let’s take a look at some of the keys from last night’s performance.

Monta Ellis-22 points, 8-11 FGs, 4-4 3FGs, 4 assists & 2 steals


Stephen Curry-18 points, 6-7 FGs, 3-3 3FGs, 6 assists & 2 steals


We all know this will be the strength of this team so it was nice to see that Monta has truly molded his game to fit with Curry’s. Obviously he was in a sharing mood and his efficiency shows that he was taking good shots. As for the rest of the team the Warriors out rebounded the Clippers which will be the stat that should change the most for them this year thanks to David Lee. Since we’re just one game in and I was only able to see highlights we’ll stop here for now.

Tomorrow night they will be playing another team with low expectations and something to prove sot the Kings will provide a good barometer of things to come, in my preseason opinion, take from it what you will?

NBA Regular Season and Playoff Preview for 2009-2010 Western Conference

The Western Conference will still be a tough place to play this season even though it lost a lot of talent to the Eastern Conference. Kobe Bryant is getting older but the Lakers are getting stronger. Kevin Durant may be a little tired this year but he also got a little tougher. The west could have only one or two teams win less than 35 games in my opinion, so let's get to how the playoff picture will stack up and what we can expect from each team?


1. Los Angeles Lakers


Again, Kobe Bryant is a year older, wiser, better, healthier and so is his supporting cast. Since no one really knows how long Andrew Bynum will be out the Lakers are in jeopardy of losing the number one seed to a team that is younger and cares about the regular season a bit more. But the Lake show still has a big enough edge on talent and depth compared to their fellow conference foes so that should be enough to still carry them to number one. Ron Artest will be even better in the triangle this year and with the addition of Matt Barnes the Lakers will have another ball handler with their second unit that can cause matchup problems. This team is a Swiss army knife that plays basketball. They could play Odom, Barnes, Artest, Devin Ebanks and Derrick Caracter together for extended minutes and still be a better team than most other units in the league. That's why the Lakers are so dangerous, not just because of their height but also they can matchup with anyone. And you know who I'm talking about when I say anyone. TheFinals are going to be good this year.


2. Dallas Mavericks


The Dallas Mavericks care about the regular season. They make it a point to do so. They don't feel like going on the road in the playoffs if they don't have to but they will if necessary. This team is a bit of a mixed bag this year because you could write them off as old and say that their window has closed. Or you could say that this team is also one of the deepest in the conference and can matchup with most. The number two seed fits them because you really don't know who will be able to maintain consistency over the course of an 82 game season. The Thunder could take this spot, but last year they were virtually injury free and many weren't expecting much from them so they snuck up on teams for most of the year. By the time the rest of the league knew who they were their playoff position was already secured. The Mavericks know that this is one of their last gasps as a group so they need to ease themselves into the playoffs. They will do that by winning games that they should because they're a veteran team with just the right amount of youth behind them at the guard positions and center spot. Now this also could be the year where Dirk Nowitzki finally breaks down and is out for 30-40 games because of some freak injury. Did you know that Dirk has never missed 6 games in a season? Let's hope his health remains in tact and the Mavs do what they're supposed to.


3. Oklahoma City Thunder


A year wiser, battle tested, deeper and James Harden can only improve. The Thunder is in this spot just because I expect one key player to go down for a while and Kevin Durant to be a little, just a little, fatigued. That's no knock on him; it's just that it is hard scoring 30 points a night for what, 270-300 days out of the year? I've seen charts that show players aren't usually adversely affected from playing in the summer tourneys but Durant is an exception. He was working just as hard in Turkey as he does in Oklahoma. He wasn't coming in for 15 minute stints and just going with the flow, he was dominating. This will be one of the great athletic achievements of the year in all of sports if he is able to keep up this pace for two full seasons, and he probably will. The key for this year's team will be James Harden. After a rookie year in which he came off the bench, his production will be key to the Thunder making it to the second round and beyond. In two playoff wins against the Lakers he shot .535% on his field goals and 5 for 8 from three while scoring 18 and 15 points respectively. In four playoff losses he scored 13 points, total. His regular season numbers were decent for a rookie averaging 9.9 a night and just over 3 extra rebounds a game on .403% from the field and hitting .375% of his threes. Everyone will know what to expect from the Thunder this season but James Harden is still a mystery to most. An improvement from him off the bench will really make this team a contender. And of course good health for the entire team as well.


4. Portland Trailblazers


Brandon Roy is a nice guy on the court, he doesn't really get angry nor does he show too much emotion. One would think that he and the rest of the Blazers are all seeking a bit of vengeance for having such an injury riddled year and having their star player go down at the most inopportune time of the season. This team is still deeper than most and no one will want to play them in April or May. The elephant in the room is still Greg Oden's health but this team has grown accustomed to playing without him. They will be dangerous and will surprise some and will probably push the Lakers in the second round to 7 games. Will they win? That will depend on Greg Oden's health.


5. Utah Jazz


Al Jefferson is an unknown commodity. Most NBA pundits claim to know him but he truly is underappreciated. His presence will help the Jazz even though Paul Millsap is still there. The Jazz might have been better served committing their assets to a proven wing scorer since they had been grooming Millsap to replace Boozer. One was not available though, so they had to settle for yet another potential 20 & 10 big man. This team is not very deep but it is used to dealing with injuries. They will occupy this spot simply because they have more talent in their starting five than anyone else we could put here. We already know about Deron Williams and he just might threaten the 25 and 10 mark this season because he will have to score more this year now that Wesley Matthews won't chip in those extra easy buckets and Mehmet Okur will be out for quite some time. That will be good enough for this team to maybe tie with the Blazers but still be relegated to the 5th seed.


6. San Antonio Spurs


This is a weird spot to put the New England Patriots in, err... I mean Spurs. Tony Parker missed a lot of time last year and Richard Jefferson wasn't what they expected. The Spurs feel like a team that's window has closed but their fingers are still stuck under the window. They're in pain and will need a lot of strength to push it back open. Everyone's older and after seeing how the Suns ran against them in the playoffs last year you just have to wonder how much longer this honeymoon will last. Tim Duncan has lost weight and that should help but Manu is 33 and will have to have one last big year in him for them to contend. Tiago Splitter could be a revelation and put up 15 & 10, which isn't likely but is a possibility. If that happens, then this team will contend for another title. For now though they're good enough for 6th.


7. New Orleans Hornets


Before Chris Paul was hurt last year the Hornets weren't exactly setting the league on fire. They will have a very thin bench this year but their starters will be able to run and play defense. Everyone is expecting Trevor Ariza to return to his championship form but really, the key to this team will be the form of Omeka Okafor. No one knows why he had such a sharp decline in production last year including him. He will be the difference between them making the playoffs and not. Well, maybe it's not that serious because Marcus Thornton will now be a starter and David West will still be running the pick and roll with Paul. When you look at them on paper this team's starting five has no holes in it. In addition, Paul’s strengths will be able to compensate for most of his teammates’ weaknesses. The story of his supposed trade request won’t be an issue. His happiness has nothing to do with this season's prospects because he can't go anywhere for another two years. This will allow him and the franchise to relax and make some progress towards a higher seed next year and brighter future.


8. Golden State Warriors


Call me a homer but this is where I'm hoping they will be. Allow me to show you how a Warriors fan can talk himself into his team making the playoffs. First of all we won 26 games last year but a new coach means new energy for this team which should account for at least 3 more wins. That brings us to 29. We have a new shiny rebounder in David Lee and if Andris Biedrins is healthy then the glass problems of last year will be completely solved, yes completely, which brings us to say 34 wins? Monta Ellis will be far more efficient this year thanks to a renewed since of life and putting aside his rift with Stephen Curry from last year, 38 wins. Stephen Curry should join the 20 & 7 club which will account for another 2 wins, 40. This team will play better defense and we will finish as the 23rd ranked team in points allowed thanks to Dorell Wright and the return of Biedrins. 45 wins. We need maybe a couple more to get to the playoffs and I’m going to say that David Lee and his extra 20 points and 3-5 dimes a night will get us over the hump. 47 wins and the 8th seed baby!


9. Houston Rockets


Yao Ming is back but only for half the games next year. This team is in a very interesting position for the future because Aaron Brooks wants a new contract, so does Shane Battier and they have to work Kevin Martin into the flow of a Brooks, Luis Scola and the return of Yao scoring rotation. I think it will work and this team is deep, but much like last year they're still reliant on the health of Yao. 24 minutes of action is better than nothing but how will his presence affect the chemistry of the team when they feel pressured to try to work him into the game. That will be tough for Brooks and Rick Adelman to manage and we will see how they do. They will be in the playoff hunt until the very end but will fall just short of those new look defensive minded Warriors! Look someone has to bite the bullet in order for my dubs to make.


10. Phoenix Suns


We should know by now that Steve Nash should never be discredited or counted out. At the same time why didn’t the Suns resign Amar’e Stoudemire? Let’s do a little math on the new salaries they will be paying this year.


Josh Childress 5 years/$33 million


Hakim Warrick 4 years/$18 million


Hedo Turkoglu 4 years/$43 million


Channing Frye 5 years/$30 million


That’s $124 million in salary. The Suns supposedly would not guarantee $100 million to Amar’e over the next five years because of injury concerns. Interesting, how would you have spent the Suns’ money? Hedo could end up being the 05’-06’ version of Boris Diaw for the Suns but that will be the only way this team makes the playoffs since it looks like Warrick doesn’t appear to be the starter heading into the season. This team is deep but there starting five will be far less intimidating than it once was. There defense could improve but it could also be countered this year since teams will be expecting their zone now. Unfortunately, it looks like the sun will finally start to set in the valley.


11. Denver Nuggets


Carmelo Anthony will be traded at the end of the year which isn’t really breaking news. Still there were other factors the Nuggets had to consider even before that scenario started to play out. In addition to Melo's future keeping the franchise in limbo the Nuggets have a few other players with expiring contracts on their roster that need to be addressed as well. J.R. Smith, Kenyon Martin and the future of Chauncey Billups all remain in doubt. How will this team play with all of them looking towards the future of not only themselves but each others as well? Once Carmelo gets traded the wheels might fall off because George Karl will also be looking for an extension pretty soon. All of this could change though if Carmelo decides to prove everyone who claims he is not a franchise player wrong and elevate his team to "elite" status. So I guess there is some hope for that, right?


12. Memphis Grizzlies


The Memphis Grizzlies should not regress this year and they probably won't. With an improved bench they should at least reach the 40 win mark again this season but that will probably be about it. The Western Conference will have so much parody this year that we might have 5 teams in the lottery that won between 35-40 games. Unless Rudy Gay adds 5 assists a night to his nightly performances then I don't see this team being much better than it was last year. Now if Mike Conley turns into a 17 and 7 point guard than this team will challenge for that 8th and final playoff spot. He should have plenty of motivation to do so since he'll be playing for a new contract. The Grizz are at an interesting crossroads as a franchise because they know what they have in O.J. Mayo, Marc Gasol and Rudy Gay. The question for them now will be how much longer should they keep Zach Randolph around? This team has the talent to make the playoffs but yet something was missing last year that kept them from doing so. Whatever it is, it still does not seem to be found.


13. Sacramento Kings


You know what's interesting about Tyreke Evans? If you put him on the Thunder or Grizzlies than you could make the argument that the Thunder would have beaten the Lakers and that the Grizz would have made the playoffs last year. Imagine Russell Westbrook, Tyreke Evans and Kevin Durant together. Kobe Bryant would have had to play defense, Jeff Green would have been able to relax a little bit more and then they would have been the team that could cause matchup problems. Kevin Durant could have played the four with Tyreke at the three spot for extended minutes. Back to the reality of the Kings now. With the addition of DeMarcus Cousins who looks like he will be the starter at center this season, the Kings will be dangerous. They have size everywhere, can score inside with ease from multiple positions and will not be losing very many rebounding battles. The only thing holding this team back will be their ability to play together. Very rarely do young teams put it all together so quickly but the Kings have plenty of reasons as to why they can do it this year. Paul Westphal will make a strong push for the Coach of the Year award as they should be penciled in for 40 wins as well.


14. Los Angeles Clippers


Which Baron Davis will show up this year? If it's the Baron who decides he will be the best point guard in the league than maybe Blake Griffin will be hoisting the Co-Rookie of the Year trophy and the Clippers will be the biggest surprise of the season. The Clippers have just as much talent as any team not named the Heat, Lakers, Celtics or Magic. With athleticism coming from every position and a big man who can get easy buckets in the half court via Chris Kaman, this team has all the tools to be in the playoffs. When they run they will be dangerous. When they play pick and roll they'll be dangerous. When they drive and kick they will be dangerous. Why can't they make the playoffs this year!?!??!??!?! We will have to wait and see exactly why.


15. Minnesota Timberwolves


This team is like one big mutual fund right now. Or MUNI bond, there's a lot of talent with big upside but as a whole the annual returns won't be that great right now. This team's roster is built like a Major League Baseball team, on any given night they could start a totally different lineup than from the night before. David Kahn has crafted this team in a way that when a major trade comes along they can be looked to as a team with the assets to pull it off. The only problem with that is in the meantime you still have to play basketball. And with all of the players requesting to be moved lately, their name has not been mentioned. They feel that within their roster portfolio a "star player" might still be lurking, but he will be very hard to find if everyone is playing 20-29 minutes a game. Kevin Love is one player who is universally praised around the league, but other than that this team will have to spend one more season to figure out who they are in terms of style, tempo, strengths and whatever else you want to name. That probably won't happen in just one year though, unless Kevin Love averages 25 points, 12 boards and 7 dimes a night. Then again, Kevin Garnett was doing something like that for awhile too.